Trader MD

On Friday I was fairly busy and in the time I spent in front of the screens I didn't see much. I added some RIMM Aug 105 puts.

Had a fairly busy weekend and didn't get enough chart study in on sunday night before crashing. I ended up closing my RIMM Aug 105 puts for a slight profit as I didn't really like the way it was acting. My stop was a move over 120, but I figured it was better to close it.

Today was just as bad if not worse than yesterday in terms of being tired. So I ended up using this morning to catch up on sleep and I think I'm now good to go. Instead of looking for trades this morning and when I had time through out the day, I ended up scanning daily charts and I picked up some USO about midday and RBN at the close.

I think the market is looking good on the near to intermediate term here. The $COMPQ / $RUT look like they are putting in a higher low or cup and handle type bottom. The $NDX is putting in what looks like a rounded bottom, and the $SPX is putting in a higher low / tweezer type formation on that higher low. Of course none of these patterns have been 'validated' yet.

Sectors that appear to be looking good: Steel (aside from MTL), Solars (appear to be setting up to run again), and Rails.

Mixed Sectors: Agriculture (AGU looks to be putting in a bear flag, CF has maintained its symmetrical triangle and is looking like it wants to break out to the upside, TRA has held up fairly well), Chinese Internet Stocks (BIDU looks solid, where as SOHU/SINA look neutral/negative) and Coals (FDG WLT ACI MEE; CNX & FCL don't).

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:01 PM 1 comments

Labels: Coal, Index, Oil, RBN, RIMM, Sector, Solar, Steel

My targets on these trades were much higher. For MTL I was looking for a test of the recent all time highs 165 (if not higher) and for IPI I was looking for it's recent all time highs of 53.50 (if not higher), but sometimes you just have to take what the market gives you.

Both of these stocks are also follower stocks in leading sectors (Ag & Steel). When watching the leaders in those sectors (POT & X, respectively) start to act sluggish, while the rest of the market roll over, it was a good sign to be more aggressive with stops.


One thing to notice between the two swing trades, is how they were entered (especially since both have had pretty decent run ups before their break outs).

MTL had a more orderly consolidation/pause before breaking out of its channel and was in the stronger sector, so I entered the trade on a break above the recent highs.

IPI had a more violent break out and had little to no pause before breaking out, and as a result I waited for a break above the bars that close above the descending trendline of the triangle.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 5:19 PM 0 comments

Labels: Ag, Channel, IPI, MTL, Steel, Swing, Triangle

Market action improved today. We gapped down on the indexes, and gradually pushed higher through the day.

The Ag group was showing relative strength from the open. I saw POT and AG gap up, so I looked for an entry in the group and found AGU.



While I used a wider stop than I would have liked with AGU, the trade still still had a good result. I would have closed part of the trade at the fib extension and let the rest run, but the market has had little follow through over the last 2 days. AGU pushed higher, but I didn't miss too much.

V on the other hand, had a better formed handle (more distinct volume contraction) which let me use a tighter stop.



Taking a look at the V chart, you can see how either a conservative or aggressive fib level would have worked. I tend to use conservative fib extensions (drawn to the generalized base of the cup, as opposed to the very bottom of the cup).

Seems like the commodity areas (oil/energy/steel/ag/coal/etc) & solars just roar on.

Quite a few steel stocks hit new all time highs / recent highs (X, SCHN, MT, NUE, GGB). I also like to include CLF in that space (although they are an iron ore producer). The price action in CLF today was amazing. They report earnings and miss by something like 40 cents & gap down as a result. Buyers stepped in and pushed CLF to new all time highs.

Speaking of steel stocks, I picked up MTL today as a swing, and keep an eye on AKS as it sets a new all time high just above 69.62. RS looks very compelling as well (although it has lagged recently, it has formed a nice base and breaking above 64 could really push it higher).

JRCC (coal) & JOYG (machinery) had similar price action to CLF. Speaking of machinery stocks, CAT looks like it wants to push higher and test its recent highs of ~85.50.

Current swing positions:

• Picked up AKS, MTL & IPI.
• I was stopped out of my DZZ today for a small loss.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:42 PM 0 comments

Labels: Ag, AGU, AKS, CupnHandle, IPI, MTL, Steel, V

First, the earnings (I'll be paying attention to the italicized ones; courtesy of Briefing.com):

• Monday: ALDN, ACI, BAC, LLY, GCI, MRK, NVLS, STLD, and TXN...
• Tuesday: AKS, BHI, CME, COH, LMT, MCD, NCC, PAS, UAUA, UNH, WU, BRCM, CREE, CYMI, NSC, VMW, YHOO, and YUM..
• Wednesday: AAPL, APD, ABK, ABC, BIIB, FCL, GENZ, SGP, BUD, AMZN, CMG, FFIV, NTRI, and QCOM...
• Thursday: MMM, MO, DOW, FLIR, MOT, NOC, PEP, POT, RTN, TASR, ZMH, AXP, BIDU, MFE, WFR, MSFT, WDC, and YRCW...
• Friday: AXL, GT, ERIC, and WEN.

Note: VMW, NTRI, CMG, BIDU, TASR, CREE and YRCW have significant short interests (a positive reaction to their earnings could accelerate quickly to the upside)

You'll notice there are quite a few coal, steel, semi

This week's economic reports are on the lighter side & there is no scheduled fed speak.

On to the indexes:

• Keeping a longer term perspective on the S&P

• The S&P daily

• The QQQQ daily

• The IWM daily

• The XLF daily

• The SMH daily

We've had quite a nice move up over the last week and we're probably due for some sort of a breather here. Another event that will make next week interesting is what happens of the YHOO/MSFT deal.

Things look good for now and I think that will continue, even if we get a few minor shocks along the way. Any unexpected major shocks could definitely change the course over the short to intermediate term.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 10:37 AM 0 comments

Labels: Coal, CupnHandle, Index, Recap, Semis, Steel