Trader MD

Oil, which has been one of the strongest trades and strongest markets over the last several months has recently pulled back pretty sharply. There was no news to suggest that this pullback was due to some major psychology shift in the market. As a result I was waiting for oil to setup as a bounce play in the highlighted yellow area.

I'm not one to pick bottoms, but IMO this was a very low risk setup based on the strength we had seen in crude, the fairly rapid (yet losing momentum) decline we had seen).

Ended up making a fairly nice profit, which probably would have been better if the oil market wasn't as volatile.

2 Charts show the setup on the daily and the trade on the intraday basis.





Here's RBN from when I entered it as it was breaking back above resistance. RBN was a stock I had been stalking as it had held up better than most other equity charts during the month of July. It initially broke out past resistance but ended up pulling back with the market.

(*edit*: oops, posted the wrong RBN chart - from a few weeks back ... it's now corrected).



Here's the trade on an intraday basis.



Here's RIMM which ended up forming a symmetrical triangle of sorts. I probably exited a bit early, but looking back and thanks to the nondirectional market, my exit was actually fairly good. My target initially was a run up to the 50 day moving average (~126), but it had already run half that distance (from 119) in a very short period of time so I decided to take profits.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 8:28 PM 0 comments

Labels: Divergence, Oil, RBN, RIMM, Triangle

My entry in USO on Tuesday was around 98.50. I exited some on Wednesday @ 99.50ish (Tuesday's afternoon high), some on Thursday morning in Premarket around 102, and I tried to let the rest run but was stopped out below 99.80.

I picked up RBN @ Tuesday's close around 50.85, closed 1/2 just below Wednesday's Pivot R2 (below 52.07), and tried to let the rest run but was stopped out below 51.20 just before Thursday's close.

On Thursday I picked up RIMM @ 119 and probably closed it a bit too soon @ 122.50. Oh well :)

As for QLD (ultra long Qs), I've been nibbling at a small position as we are in the process of forming a rounded bottom on the Q's. I'm looking to add to it on a solid close / backtest of 75.

Despite only spending about 2 hours of total market time in front of the trading desk a day (thanks to being on the West Coast), I've had a pretty solid July. It looks like all my planning and keeping positions on a tight leash during this month have worked out well. 1 Month doesn't mean much in the long run, butif this is any indication of trading while working, I'm definitely happy with it.

This weekend, I'll try and put together a bit about my daily schedule and what has worked for me during what has been a fairly crazy July. In essence, it comes down to taking fewer positions, keeping them on a tight leash and staying disciplined about the trades obviously and maybe just as important the daily routine.

I'll also be sure to post charts of my entries / exits so its a bit easier to visualize.

That's all the time I have for now.

Good luck out there.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 5:48 AM 0 comments

Labels: General, Oil, qqqq, RBN, RIMM

On Friday I was fairly busy and in the time I spent in front of the screens I didn't see much. I added some RIMM Aug 105 puts.

Had a fairly busy weekend and didn't get enough chart study in on sunday night before crashing. I ended up closing my RIMM Aug 105 puts for a slight profit as I didn't really like the way it was acting. My stop was a move over 120, but I figured it was better to close it.

Today was just as bad if not worse than yesterday in terms of being tired. So I ended up using this morning to catch up on sleep and I think I'm now good to go. Instead of looking for trades this morning and when I had time through out the day, I ended up scanning daily charts and I picked up some USO about midday and RBN at the close.

I think the market is looking good on the near to intermediate term here. The $COMPQ / $RUT look like they are putting in a higher low or cup and handle type bottom. The $NDX is putting in what looks like a rounded bottom, and the $SPX is putting in a higher low / tweezer type formation on that higher low. Of course none of these patterns have been 'validated' yet.

Sectors that appear to be looking good: Steel (aside from MTL), Solars (appear to be setting up to run again), and Rails.

Mixed Sectors: Agriculture (AGU looks to be putting in a bear flag, CF has maintained its symmetrical triangle and is looking like it wants to break out to the upside, TRA has held up fairly well), Chinese Internet Stocks (BIDU looks solid, where as SOHU/SINA look neutral/negative) and Coals (FDG WLT ACI MEE; CNX & FCL don't).

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:01 PM 1 comments

Labels: Coal, Index, Oil, RBN, RIMM, Sector, Solar, Steel