Trader MD

Ended up with singles in each of the above names, before I was shaken out as the MBI/ABK downgrade news was released. In some cases it was good, in other cases they stabilized to run higher. Kind of hard to work on letting profits run when the market feels like it can reverse @ any minute... But maybe thats just my feelings about it right now?

I'll post the charts later tonight.

I may and take tomorrow off as I've had a very solid week. It depends on what the market looks like tomorrow morning.


*** Sorry no charts tonight. I spent the majority of the afternoon and evening taking care of errands as I'm preparing to move later this month. A lot of my free time this week has been spent towards prepping for the move.

I'll try and post the charts tomorrow or sometime this weekend.


** Updated***

Here are the charts (4 decently managed trades and 1 bad one in CLF):











Again nothing special, just hitting a few singles.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 1:52 PM 4 comments

Labels: AKS, CLF, MTL, SOLF, STP

My targets on these trades were much higher. For MTL I was looking for a test of the recent all time highs 165 (if not higher) and for IPI I was looking for it's recent all time highs of 53.50 (if not higher), but sometimes you just have to take what the market gives you.

Both of these stocks are also follower stocks in leading sectors (Ag & Steel). When watching the leaders in those sectors (POT & X, respectively) start to act sluggish, while the rest of the market roll over, it was a good sign to be more aggressive with stops.


One thing to notice between the two swing trades, is how they were entered (especially since both have had pretty decent run ups before their break outs).

MTL had a more orderly consolidation/pause before breaking out of its channel and was in the stronger sector, so I entered the trade on a break above the recent highs.

IPI had a more violent break out and had little to no pause before breaking out, and as a result I waited for a break above the bars that close above the descending trendline of the triangle.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 5:19 PM 0 comments

Labels: Ag, Channel, IPI, MTL, Steel, Swing, Triangle

The market was generally weak all day and the morning trades had little follow through (essentially turning into scalps). It wasn't until the afternoon that the market really started to break down.

Aside from managing my swing trades in IPI, MTL & AKS, I was watching the Ag sector.

The annotated chart for POT basically says it all.



Speaking of those swing trades, I'll post up some charts later of my entries and exits (They've all been closed). I'll also try and post some index recaps.

Right now we're either going through a flush out or the market could be starting to break down. It's a bit early to tell, but one key area I'm watching on the S&P is the 1370/1380 area. IMO a break below 1380 could bring in more selling pressure.

If you are still in any swing positions, I would consider tightening my stops here.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:54 PM 5 comments

Labels: AKS, CupnHandle, IPI, MTL, POT

Market action improved today. We gapped down on the indexes, and gradually pushed higher through the day.

The Ag group was showing relative strength from the open. I saw POT and AG gap up, so I looked for an entry in the group and found AGU.



While I used a wider stop than I would have liked with AGU, the trade still still had a good result. I would have closed part of the trade at the fib extension and let the rest run, but the market has had little follow through over the last 2 days. AGU pushed higher, but I didn't miss too much.

V on the other hand, had a better formed handle (more distinct volume contraction) which let me use a tighter stop.



Taking a look at the V chart, you can see how either a conservative or aggressive fib level would have worked. I tend to use conservative fib extensions (drawn to the generalized base of the cup, as opposed to the very bottom of the cup).

Seems like the commodity areas (oil/energy/steel/ag/coal/etc) & solars just roar on.

Quite a few steel stocks hit new all time highs / recent highs (X, SCHN, MT, NUE, GGB). I also like to include CLF in that space (although they are an iron ore producer). The price action in CLF today was amazing. They report earnings and miss by something like 40 cents & gap down as a result. Buyers stepped in and pushed CLF to new all time highs.

Speaking of steel stocks, I picked up MTL today as a swing, and keep an eye on AKS as it sets a new all time high just above 69.62. RS looks very compelling as well (although it has lagged recently, it has formed a nice base and breaking above 64 could really push it higher).

JRCC (coal) & JOYG (machinery) had similar price action to CLF. Speaking of machinery stocks, CAT looks like it wants to push higher and test its recent highs of ~85.50.

Current swing positions:

• Picked up AKS, MTL & IPI.
• I was stopped out of my DZZ today for a small loss.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:42 PM 0 comments

Labels: Ag, AGU, AKS, CupnHandle, IPI, MTL, Steel, V