Thursday, April 24, 2008

Watch List for 4/25/08 - a sector based approach

Just a guess, but look for tomorrow to be more of the same as today.

That probably would mean more selling for Ag, and more break downs for Coal, Steel, Energy, Solar names.

They've all had fantastic runs and its still a bit early to tell if people are actually transitioning to what may become new leadership, or if they just have an excuse to sell what has been ridiculously hot and pick up what has been beaten down.

If you want to take a look at what kind of stocks that did poorly today, just take a look at any momentum type name over the last month, esp NEU & PBT. Wow, I'm guessing a few people wish they had sold or tightened their stops.

The steeper a stocks ascent has been, the more likely it is to roll over as profit taking feeds upon itself.

If gold continues its descent (and even otherwise), I particularly like GOLD (the ticker symbol, although its a bit thin, so be careful) as a swing short/short, but I'm probably a bit early as the double top I see hasn't been techincally confirmed yet.

Just to recap, sectors that did well today are:
Financials, Homebuilders, Tech, Semis, Retail and Consumer discretionary

Other names to keep an eye on to the long side:
China related tech stocks (BIDU, SINA, esp SOHU -- its coiling up for its next move), the rails appear to be bouncing here (CSX, NSC, BNI, UNP, etc), AAPL could continue its recent momentum (it had a solid move / reaction today after the earnings were digested), BCSI (appears to have bottomed... it purchased a company a few days ago and traded UP on the news -- usually the purchaser trades down), AKAM (broken down trend line & solid buying interest over the last few days), Semiconductor related names (LRCX, SNDK, QCOM, KLAC, BRCM)

And of course keep an eye out on the following stocks for any short squeeze type action:
BZH, VMW, NILE, NTRI, GRMN & LULU

Finally keep an eye out on education related stocks. They've been beaten up quite a bit recently due to concerns over student loans, but after the bell DV (DeVry) posted better than expected earnings. Other education stocks: STRA, CECO, APOL, EDU

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