Trader MD

Hopefully everyone enjoyed the long weekend.

After looking at some charts, we maybe due for a bounce here.

Some names to keep an eye on the long side:

• AMSC - recent high volume surge followed by a lower volume consolidation
• BIDZ - recent break out of a bowl type pattern & is now backtesting that break out. I think BIDZ can hit ~15
• CLR - recent high volume surge followed by a lower volume consolidation
• CPHD - possible inverted H&S forming here
• NEU looks to have stabilized on the downside and could start to push higher here
• Also keep an eye on the solar names, esp LDK, SOLF & CSIQ as they appear to want to move higher. SOLF & CSIQ may still be in a consolidation mode. Look for volume to start picking back up as an indication

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:36 PM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

Here's the Nasdaq 100 after today's market action.

We're still trading in the upper half of the channel dating back to the Bear Stearns Low (March 17th).

Important levels to watch are ~2010, which appears to be near term support. The next level of interest is ~1990 which is support & the median line for the channel. The median line often acts as support/resistance, as you can see from the chart.



This is the Power Shares Agriculture ETF. This basically lets you take advantage of movements in the futures of Agriculture related commodities. Notice how it's been coiling up in a descending triangle type pattern and could break either way soon.



Here's Intrepid Potash (IPI), which also is coiling up to form a symmetrical triangle. I expect it to break one direction or the other during the next week or so.



My current view for tomorrow's market is fairly neutral believe it or not. Yes today's late day action was bearish, and is definitely a reason to become more cautious, but I'll wait to see how the market acts in the first portion of the trading day. With the previous 2 late day sell offs we had recently, the markets began grinding upwards as if nothing happened.

Sure the volume on the upside is light, and sure we're over extended, but you still have to give the benefit of the doubt to the buyers.

For clues to which direction the market may move, keep an eye on the Materials (XLB, SLX, KOL, MOO), Energy (XLE, OIH, TAN), Transports (Rails & Dry Shippers), & Tech (XLK, SMH, & large cap techs).

As I mentioned earlier today, these are the sectors that have led the market higher. In essence, these are the best & strongest stocks in the market.

Alternatively, you could select the strongest few stocks from each sector & watch those.

If the market looks like it wants to bounce, AMZN (continued momentum) could setup as a decent play to the upside.

If the market looks like it wants to continue to sell off I'll be looking through my lists of stocks in the materials & energy sectors. Particularly MON (bearish flag here?) in the Ags, CLF in the Steel sector (post split effect?), ACI in the Coal sector (failed break out today?) and JASO (possible continued downside momentum) in the Solars.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 8:16 PM 0 comments

Labels: Index, Sector, Watch List

I've had a pretty busy weekend. In fact, I didn't get to look at a single chart up until about an hour ago. I'm in the process of preparing to move, figuring out furniture, and hanging out with some friends I won't be seeing as often.

Next week looks to be pretty tame in terms of economic data and earnings season has tailed off a bit.

Volume could dry up this week as a result. We also have the Memorial day weekend coming up, which may exacerbate that and put the markets into summer mode.

Wednesday's FOMC minutes will probably be the most watched and emotion driven even of the week. I'm fairly confident that the street is looking for evidence that the Fed is done cutting for a while, as people are becoming more concerned with inflation (now and down the road).

Some stocks I'm keeping an eye on for the next week (basic theme here is stocks still reasonably close to their bases or yet to break out in strong/strengthening sectors):

• Solars: LDK, YGE, STP, SPWR
• Coal: ACI, RRC
• Hotels: WYNN, LVS
• Energy: CRK, SGY, SLB
  
• Agriculture: The entire sector could be ready to play catch up to the rest of the commodities, but I like IPI in particular
• Celluar: VIP
• Engineering: MDR (inverse H&S here, starting last ~October?)
• Medical: CMED, ISRG
  

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:56 PM 0 comments

Labels: Recap, Watch List

We have the CPI before the bell & crude inventories around 10:30 AM.

Steel / iron ore stocks started to break out towards the end of the day today and they will be at the top of my list tomorrow.

Some stocks to take a look at depending on if these sectors are doing well.

• Ag - AG (bounced off major support and is pushing higher from the base it has formed), AGU (several low volume hammer type bars in succession), CMP (good relative strength today compared to the rest of the sector)
• Coal - ACI (forming a broadening type pattern & could break to new highs)
• Steel - AKS, CLF (continuation), MTL, RIO
• Oil - COG (over ~63), CRK (starting to push higher), HES (breaking to new highs), RRC, XEC
  
• Engineering (continuation of momentum) - JEC, FWLT, FLR, MDR (looks to be forming an inverse H&S on the daily)
• Solar - JASO / LDK (both have lagged behind the rest of the group as a result of disappointing earnings)
• Semis - if AMAT continues to do well the first 2 semis I will be looking @ are SNDK & BRCM
  

Jamie has highlighted LEH as a short if financials roll over.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:25 PM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

• Rails (bull flags) - BNI / KSU / CSX
• Ag (downtrend line breaks / look better on the intraday charts) - POT / MON / MOS
• Water - FLS (bull flag) / AWK (could follow FLS's lead)
  
• Steel (bull flags)- MTL / X / CLF/ AKS
• Tech (bull flags) - BRCM / ADSK / ADBE
• FLR's opening tomorrow should gap it up to new all time highs

Today's volume was really light. Hopefully we get some more volume tomorrow. For some reason I doubt it.

Be careful out there tomorrow. We have a day loaded with fed speak.

Low volume + tons of fed speak could make for a very choppy session.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:42 AM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

Looks like the futures will open to the downside after the Microsoft/Yahoo fall out.

I'll be looking to see if / when the buyers step in for the day.

• The dry shippers (DRYS, GNK, TBSI, DSX, EXM, etc) look like they want to move higher.
• Ag & Coal look like they want to bounce.
• ISRG is possibly forming a bear flag.
• Some bull flags: ADSK, DAR, EAC, FLS, BRCM.
• Possible continuation in RIMM.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:43 AM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

I could be wrong though. The way the Nasdaq ran up today, it could easily gap up and run some more.

Nothing new to really add tonight. I basically have the same watch list and mentality going into tomorrow, although I may try and focus on some of those Brazilian stocks a bit more, as a lot of them retraced or consolidated today.

Don't forget to keep an eye on that dollar, especially in light of tomorrow mornings Employment Situation (1 hr before the open).

Oh, I will highlight 2 tech names I'm liking right here. I already mentioned RIMM in today's recap but I also like the way BRCM has consolidated and it looks like its beginning its next leg higher.

I'll have more to say this weekend after a more detailed chart review.

Good luck and make some good trades.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:41 AM 0 comments

Labels: Dollar, Watch List

It's hard to say what will happen tomorrow. We could be due for more of a pull back (just based on how overbought we still are), but I suspect a lot of it will still come down to the strength of the dollar.

The tone of the market has changed and the market is clearly focused on the stability of the dollar and it's implications on inflation.

There's also plenty of dollar moving economic data on the horizon tomorrow (in addition to Friday's employment situation):



For an idea of what to go trade, keep an eye on the dollar. If you don't get get futures data, you can watch the ETFs to get a good idea of what's going on: FXE (the euro), FXY (the yen), and FXB (the pound) are the currencies to be watching. Then of course the commodities: GLD (gold), SLV (silver), and most importantly USO (oil).

With weakness in the dollar look to for long setups in anything commodity related: Ag, Coal, Steel, Energy/Oil related names.

If the dollar can firm up a bit look to tech & transports (esp the rails).

In addition, a better than expected number for the jobless claims would be good for retail related names.

Good luck tomorrow. That's honestly my watch list for tomorrow, as I don't plan on putting on any new swing positions ahead of Friday's employment data.

I'm still in my DZZ & DUG, which are now slightly in the red. We'll see if I get stopped out or if oil and gold reverse their course.

*Updated:*

I forgot to mention the huge explosion in Brazilian related names today. Apparently S&P (the ratings agency) came in and upgraded the credit rating for Brazil. That lit a fire under all of their ADRs. Keep an eye on the EWZ (Brazil ETF), PBR, RIO, SID, GGB, BBD, UBB, ITU, GOL & other Brazilian names for follow through.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:45 AM 0 comments

Labels: Brazil, Dollar, Watch List

Tomorrow will probably be another low volume day as we await the Fed, GDP, & a host of other data later this week.

A couple names to keep an eye on (make sure there's good volume, esp tomorrow):

• ARD - follow through on today's break out (mentioned in last nights watch list)
• FSLR - tweezer bottom type pattern (mentioned last night as well)
• RIMM - bull flag?
• BCSI - bull flag over 22.25
• The dry shippers (DRYS, GNK, DSX, TBSI, etc) & other transports (esp the rails)

And on the short side:

• Possible follow through on the Ag names?
• Possible follow through on the gold miners
• BVN - bear flag?

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:54 PM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

A lot of the momentum sectors (Ag, Coal, Steel, Solar, Oil related names) appear to be bouncing off of support or shaking out weak holders. Look to them for continued movement upwards.

Some interesting findings:

• FSLR - tweezer bottom
• FLS - tweezer bottom
• ARD - breaks out over 47.50
• JASO - tweeezer bottom
• ISRG - bear flag?
• VIP - breaks down below 28.50ish
• LULU - Short Squeeze over ~34
• VMW - continuation / high short interest

And for some entertainment (it'll surprise you). Absolutely bloody brilliant :)


Also, check out Momentum Trader, for additional setups.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:04 AM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

Just a guess, but look for tomorrow to be more of the same as today.

That probably would mean more selling for Ag, and more break downs for Coal, Steel, Energy, Solar names.

They've all had fantastic runs and its still a bit early to tell if people are actually transitioning to what may become new leadership, or if they just have an excuse to sell what has been ridiculously hot and pick up what has been beaten down.

If you want to take a look at what kind of stocks that did poorly today, just take a look at any momentum type name over the last month, esp NEU & PBT. Wow, I'm guessing a few people wish they had sold or tightened their stops.

The steeper a stocks ascent has been, the more likely it is to roll over as profit taking feeds upon itself.

If gold continues its descent (and even otherwise), I particularly like GOLD (the ticker symbol, although its a bit thin, so be careful) as a swing short/short, but I'm probably a bit early as the double top I see hasn't been techincally confirmed yet.

Just to recap, sectors that did well today are:
Financials, Homebuilders, Tech, Semis, Retail and Consumer discretionary

Other names to keep an eye on to the long side:
China related tech stocks (BIDU, SINA, esp SOHU -- its coiling up for its next move), the rails appear to be bouncing here (CSX, NSC, BNI, UNP, etc), AAPL could continue its recent momentum (it had a solid move / reaction today after the earnings were digested), BCSI (appears to have bottomed... it purchased a company a few days ago and traded UP on the news -- usually the purchaser trades down), AKAM (broken down trend line & solid buying interest over the last few days), Semiconductor related names (LRCX, SNDK, QCOM, KLAC, BRCM)

And of course keep an eye out on the following stocks for any short squeeze type action:
BZH, VMW, NILE, NTRI, GRMN & LULU

Finally keep an eye out on education related stocks. They've been beaten up quite a bit recently due to concerns over student loans, but after the bell DV (DeVry) posted better than expected earnings. Other education stocks: STRA, CECO, APOL, EDU

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:59 PM 0 comments

Labels: Sector, Watch List

There's quite a few notable earnings before the bell (MMM, MOT, PEP, DOW, & POT).

In addition, we have the durable goods orders & jobless claims.

So far the futures are pointing to a weaker than expected opening with some underwhelming earnings related news from SBUX, AMZN, AAPL & QCOM after the bell Wednesday.

Anyhow here are some names to keep an eye on.

If POT disappoints or starts to sell off as a result of its tremendous run up, also keep an eye on MOS below 131.

If the AG sector does well, I like AG just above Wednesday's high. It's formed a nice hammer at its previous break out point of 68 and isn't nearly as over extended as the rest of the sector.

Other possible longs:

• NUE is finally starting to turn up and looks like it wants to push higher
• CLF - bull flag
• HANS has formed a narrow range hammer off of long term support and could be due for a bounce
• MELI - bull flag
• I like LULU over 34 as buying pressure should pick up providing the volume is good.

Possible shorts if the market rolls over:

• CMED - bear flag
• VIP - descending triangle - short below 29 on good volume
• APOL - bear flag
• With further weakness in gold look to short AEM / ABX
• STLD if steel starts to roll over
  

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:05 AM 2 comments

Labels: Watch List

Also keep an eye on VMW. The earnings are after the close & its pulled back to the $56 support level it recently broke out from. It has a high short interest and we could see a squeeze into, or after earnings are reported.

CREE has a high short interest & reports earnings after tomorrow's close as well. It looks like its short squeeze has already begun. Keep an eye out on CREE for continuation

Look to RIMM for continuation.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 1:15 AM 0 comments

Labels: Short Squeeze, Watch List

Arch Coal, Inc (ACI) reports before the bell Monday and could help a few of the coal stocks highlighted below (FDG & MEE) break out.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:25 PM 0 comments

Labels: Coal, Watch List

This is going to have to be another text only watch list. I still can't post pictures on Wordpress (or assign categories for my post right now) and most likely will be changing over my blogging platform this weekend. I will keep you posted.

I like:

• RIMM here (or over 124) - Nice well formed C&H
• RIO here - inverse H&S
• The copper plays I mentioned a few days ago - FCX here inverse H&S, PCU same situation
• GNK inverse H&S
• TBSI (another dry shipper) symmetrical triangle
• CEL - somewhat on the lighter side volume wise, but wow thats a nice C&H

Pending their earnings (tomorrow BMO):

• RS - nice well formed multi year consolidation / base
• NUE - symmetrical triangle

And of course keep VMW, NILE, NTRI and BZH on your radar as potential short squeezes.

And as always, check out Momentum Trader, for additional setups.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:43 PM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

Hm, so Wordpress isn't letting me upload any images right now :(. I had just annotated some charts to post as well.

Anyhow, here's the text version in brief:

• the XLF held the 24.40 level I was talking about on a closing basis and has started to bounce off that level. Additionally, despite posting worst than expected numbers on their earnings, WaMu rallied on the news (remember its not the numbers, but the reaction to the numbers that matters).
• the SMH moved below the the up trendline of the ascending triangle type formation that was highlighted in last nights post. It has since trapped some sellers/bears below that level as it spiked underneath it on an intraday basis. After the bell, Intel came out with earnings that were basically inline and the stock rallied much higher.

Based on the action I've seen today and the reaction to the 2 key earnings reports after the close, I believe we've setup for the next leg higher. Whether we'll actually break through the key levels of overhead resistance is another topic, but I'm somewhat confident in being able to put on some swing positions here.

The market has priced in that earnings expectations will be somewhat lower, and provided we experience no major shocks (like GE's earnings last Friday), I believe we'll start to work our way higher for the short to intermediate term.

As for a watch list (they're just so much better when displayed visually).... check out Momentum Trader (he and I follow similar stocks and as a result come up with similar watch lists).

Some others to keep an eye on:

• RIMM, Bullish flag
• AKS, Bullish flag
• NFLX, Bullish flag
• XLB, Bullish flag
• AEM, continuation type play (Gold's movement will have a lot to do with China's GDP released tomorrow and our CPI #s)
• BZH, short squeeze continuation

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:39 PM 0 comments

Labels: Recap, Watch List

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:23 PM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:11 PM 0 comments

Labels: Watch List

I woke up feeling pretty tired from last night and didn't really do much today other than close out a few short term swing trades. A lot of the stocks I follow have shown that they are tired following their recent run ups.

As I posted last night, Oil broke out of its triangle/flag type formation. IMO (based on what the chart is telling me) we'll break out to new highs providing Wednesday's EIA data isn't too bearish.

From tonight's charts, you'll see that networking stocks and refiners are starting to break down.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:55 AM 0 comments

Labels: Oil, Watch List

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:48 AM 0 comments

Labels: Ag, Dry Shippers, Sector, Watch List