Watch List for 5/1/08 : Keep an eye on that dollar
It's hard to say what will happen tomorrow. We could be due for more of a pull back (just based on how overbought we still are), but I suspect a lot of it will still come down to the strength of the dollar.
The tone of the market has changed and the market is clearly focused on the stability of the dollar and it's implications on inflation.
There's also plenty of dollar moving economic data on the horizon tomorrow (in addition to Friday's employment situation):
For an idea of what to go trade, keep an eye on the dollar. If you don't get get futures data, you can watch the ETFs to get a good idea of what's going on: FXE (the euro), FXY (the yen), and FXB (the pound) are the currencies to be watching. Then of course the commodities: GLD (gold), SLV (silver), and most importantly USO (oil).
With weakness in the dollar look to for long setups in anything commodity related: Ag, Coal, Steel, Energy/Oil related names.
If the dollar can firm up a bit look to tech & transports (esp the rails).
In addition, a better than expected number for the jobless claims would be good for retail related names.
Good luck tomorrow. That's honestly my watch list for tomorrow, as I don't plan on putting on any new swing positions ahead of Friday's employment data.
I'm still in my DZZ & DUG, which are now slightly in the red. We'll see if I get stopped out or if oil and gold reverse their course.
*Updated:*
I forgot to mention the huge explosion in Brazilian related names today. Apparently S&P (the ratings agency) came in and upgraded the credit rating for Brazil. That lit a fire under all of their ADRs. Keep an eye on the EWZ (Brazil ETF), PBR, RIO, SID, GGB, BBD, UBB, ITU, GOL & other Brazilian names for follow through.
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