Trader MD

POT & AGU were on the HCPG newsletter last night and Jamie highlighted GRMN.

I didn't end up doing much during the market gyrations today as I was distracted. I finally picked out a TV last week and it was delivered today.

Wow, sorry about taking so long to post the charts. I ended up having to take care of more than I planned.

Here are the trades, hopefully the annotations & explanations make up for the delays.

Pay special attention to the GRMN chart as I've highlighted my adaptation of HCPGs Base & Break setup. You can read more about their system (with out having to subscribe) by checking out their "Best of Blog feature." I highly recommend it. It's has more useful information than a lot of books out there.

Anyways, the charts.

GRMN:


POT:


AGU:


Feel free to leave any feedback / questions for the setup I've highlighted.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 1:01 PM 2 comments

Labels: AGU, BasenBreak, GRMN, HCPG, POT

Only had 2 trades today. I'm a bit distracted, taking care of errands and won't be able to devote my full attention to the screens today, so I'm calling it a day early.

Here are the 2 trades.

LDK:



AGU was mentioned in the HCPG Newsletter last night.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 10:19 AM 0 comments

Labels: AGU, BasenBreak, HCPG, LDK, Triangle

Here's the LDK daily chart.



Here's the LDK Base & Break trade.



Here's the JASO 15 minute chart from the March lows until today.



Here's JASO's day trade.

JASO was also a HCPG newsletter pick last night through $26.00.



I still have that desire to bail on my late day trades, even if they are solid setups.

I left plenty of $$ on the table on a symmetrical triangle breakdown in ACI at about the same time I bailed on my JASO short.

Oh well. Still managed my longs in JASO & LDK fairly well.

I'll be looking to possibly add LDK on a pull back as a swing trade, depending on how the market and the rest of the solars are acting. FSLR (still the solar leader IMO), started to break down ahead of the other solar stocks today. It was not only a clue that the market may reverse, but that the solar sector may reverse.

HCPG also had quite a few triggers from last nights (DVN, SLB, RGLD, CMP, ACI, CMG) newsletter. I pretty much focused on the solar sector. The only one I really got a piece of is the SLB swing trade I added through 106 (possible cup & handle on the daily chart?). I closed it out as it began to reverse with the market later in the day.

I believe today's late day market reversal on heavy volume, is the 3rd one in recent weeks. I'm definitely getting more and more cautious on the long side with each of these reversals.

Keep an eye on the Tech, Transports, Materials & Energy sectors. They are the sectors that have basically pushed the market higher to the current levels. If they begin to reverse harder, they will drag the market lower. Financials, and other sector haven't really done much recently.

I'll have more on that later. Time to run some errands.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:37 PM 2 comments

Labels: ACI, BasenBreak, HCPG, JASO, LDK, Recap, SLB, Triangle

I had a few solid trades today in LDK, JASO & MOS and I had 2 trades I abandoned too early in POT & MON.

Here is a look at the JASO Base & Break / HCPG style of trade. Those guys have been on fire lately.

The solid gray line is the daily VWAP (Volume weighted average price). The white dots either signify inside bars or NR7 bars, but on a 1 minute chart, I usually ignore those. The other 2 moving averages are the 5 & 10 period EMAs.



This is a view of JASO from March 10th to today.



Most everything I have to say about LDK is on the chart.



This is a 15 day view of MOS. Keep it on your radar for tomorrow. Notice how its now sitting at the lower limit of the recent symmetrical triangle type formation.



Today's MOS trade.



Here's POT, which I was shaken out of / bailed too early as it started to bounce fairly hard on what at the time appeared to be increasing upside volume.



I skipped on annotating MON for the blog as the trade is very similar to my POT trade.

The market reversed pretty hard today and if nothing else is a reason to tighten your stops on swing trades.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:53 PM 7 comments

Labels: BasenBreak, Flag, HCPG, JASO, LDK, MON, MOS, POT, Triangle

YGE gapped up with the solar sector only to sell off and almost fill the gap (gap remained open). It was on pace to post higher than average volume and gradually worked higher to form a base at 23.47 & also 23.62. I entered on the break @ 23.47.

I sold too early again, like my OII trade from last Friday. It's going to be something that I gradually work on. Still a very solid trade.

Kudos to the HCPG crew.



FWLT gapped up with FLR and was a Trader-X style gapper play.



FLR and FSLR were also great gapper plays today. I missed the entry on FSLR and passed on FLR.

I picked up KSU as a swing. I closed out OII as it hit my target ~76. Hopefully it can pull back and form a nice low volume handle. That would make for great C&H and set it up for a nice run higher.

Speaking of Oil stocks & C&Hs, take a look at SLB.

I ended up taking the last 2 hours of the trading session off, but apparently the Steel stocks I highlighted last night took off fairly nicely (esp CLF). Keep an eye on them for continuation tomorrow.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 1:44 PM 5 comments

Labels: BasenBreak, FWLT, Gapper, HCPG, Triangle, YGE

CTSH was a HCPG watch list pick for today from last night's newsletter.



Today felt like a consolidation type day. We didn't seem to have a lot of momentum in either direction and it felt like we just grinded up & down all day.

My bearish bias towards the Ag sector held me back from placing some solid trades (MON, MOS) in the sector early in the day.

A lot of steel stocks pushed to new highs (X, NUE, CLF etc) or are setting themselves up to move higher.

Coal stocks are starting to push higher as well. Some have set new highs (WLT, JRCC) while others have printed NR7 hammer type bars today (FCL, FDG, MEE, PCX, ACI).

Keep an eye on Ag, Coal & Steel tomorrow for continuation.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 1:30 PM 0 comments

Labels: BasenBreak, CTSH, Flag, HCPG, V

TEX was a HCPG Watchlist pick from last night's newsletter. I saw it gap up and be on pace to post better than average volume for the session. I entered on what could be considered a base & break / target trade setup and exited @ the target of 73.



MOS gapped down with the rest of the Ag sector and printed a bearish flag. I entered on the breakdown of the flag and had a target of ~$123 in mind as 123 was yesterdays low and a decent support level on the daily chart.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 12:59 PM 0 comments

Labels: BasenBreak, Flag, HCPG, MOS, Target Trade, TEX

There were quite a few solid moves off of last nights watch list (BCSI, CAM, CROX, DRYS, FCX, and VMW). The coal stocks continued to be strong.

Two quick charts from the trades of today:

CSH - was a HCPG newsletter pick from last night at the $40.00 momentum break out number. It based nicely under that early in the day and pushed higher for a nice quick gain.

X provided a similar type of setup. It wasn't a chart I posted last night, but I set an alert below 140 for X. Yesterday's high was 139.98 (which is basically right below a nice round even number, 140.00).

It initially moved lower, and then started to a nice, compact, base with a flag type formation right under 140.00 I entered on the break of 140 and sold it prematurely for a 1 point vertical gain.

Enjoy the weekend. I'll be snowboarding in beautiful Lake Tahoe this weekend. If I get time I'll post my trade of Arch Coal (ACI) later.

Oh and of course for all those people watching the NCAA tournament this weekend, Go Bruins! (Although Memphis has been looking damn good) :)

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:50 AM 0 comments

Labels: BasenBreak, CSH, HCPG, Momentum, X

SGR was on my watch list from Friday. It was a HCPG pick through 50, yet didn't really offer any type of setup, as it cracked through that number late in the day on an extended move. SGR had the chance to move lower if it could stay below that 50.00 level.

Looking at the daily chart you'll notice there is very little in the form of support or resistance between the 45 and 50 levels.

SGR dropped to the 49 area early in the trading session, and began to form a base/flag right below its OR(opening range) low.

My entry was a break below 49.00 and the stop was placed just above the flag/base area. My target was just above the the 38% fib extension from Friday's high to this morning's OR low. You'll notice the S1 pivot point (yellow beaded line) is right below the entry point and the S2 pivot point (pink beaded line) is right above the exit point.

While the S1 pivot point was reason for concern, SGR had bounced very little while basing right above it.

Keep an eye on SGR at 45. A break through that on high volume should result in some more downside. It will probably need to rest a bit though, as it is down nearly 15% from last Tuesday's high.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:36 AM 0 comments

Labels: Flag, HCPG, SGR