Trader MD

It's been a while since I've posted. I think this is just about the longest I've had in between posts. Part of it is that I don't want to put up posts just to have something posted. I'd like to have some real value behind the content, which could actually serve as an example and demonstrate something useful.

Posting will probably remain a bit slow until the Olympics are over. I'm also trying to get more reading done (both medical and trading related).

Anyhow, here's a channel breakdown example on Apple.

We'll start by taking a look at the daily chart.



Here's a 20 day view of apple with 15 minute bars. Notice how there's a trend acceleration (light blue channel) inside a primary trend or channel (purple channel). From my previous posts on channels, you'll notice how the channel lines tend to serve as support/resistance.



Finally, here's a 5-6 day view of that same chart. I've zoomed in to try and identify what I was seeing take place over the last week or so before I took a short entry.



Most of the annotations are on the chart and I hope it didn't get too cluttered. I wanted to try and point out as many things as possible as I felt there was quite a bit going on.

I think AAPL can put in a bit more downside here, and I may be looking to reshort on a low volume pull back higher.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 4:27 PM 3 comments

Labels: AAPL, Channel, Negative Divergence

I caught a nice move in QLD today. I missed the C&H in Apple and I'm still holding my GLD position / giving it a bit more room.

I'll post the QLD trade sometime tomorrow (probably in the evening).

Posted by Trader M.D. at 10:42 PM 0 comments

Labels: AAPL, Gold, qqqq

Took Friday pretty easy with options expiration. Had some scalps for some pocket change, but nothing really notable.

Today I didn't have a chance to do much and I knew I didn't really want to have any swing positions on ahead of Apple's earnings. Now I'm sure you're wondering why. Well we all know the economy is bad etc, but my main reasoning for being wary ahead of Apple's earnings was the fact that the rest of the tech horsemen have disappointed basically. RIMM started selling off a few weeks back after its earnings report. GOOG disappointed just last week and sold off considerably. AMZN doesn't look like its in good shape technically (although it hasn't reported yet), and a whole host of other companies like MSFT have disappointed as well.

AAPL is just one of those companies that impacts tech, the consumer, the entire stock market in general and is something to be wary of in a down trending bear market that still responds negatively to bad news.

That being said, I did pick up a small position in GLD today (which is little impacted by individual company earnings).

Here's the chart.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 8:47 PM 0 comments

Labels: AAPL, Gold, Index

Didn't have a chance to post last night.

I was stopped out of AAPL below yesterday's opening range low (just below 179).

I was stopped out of BRCM below 27.80 (tuesday's low).

Just sitting back and watching the reaction to this mornings news this market doesn't feel like it wants to rally any time soon.

The jobs data came out and despite posting what I thought was a significantly better than expected number for this weeks job report, the futures had an initial reaction higher, and only sold off from there. You would think that for a market that's supposed to be "oversold" we'd have a much more positive and sustained reaction.

So now I'm flat and I most likely will be until at least early next week.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 7:19 AM 0 comments

Labels: AAPL, BRCM, Index

First here's DUG as promised from last night.

I was comfortable closing out my position yesterday below the $30 level as I saw the 30.40-30.60 area being pretty decent resistance, along with the outer limit of the ~5 month long channel being in that area, and seeing how much of a move DUG has made in the last few days already.

Sure the volume has been great, maybe even fantastic, but I'd still love to see it put in a pause at this area before attempting to work its way higher. Since this was a swing trade, my entries and exits were based on the daily chart for the most part.



I also think that the market has put in at least what appears to be a short term bottom here as crude has started to crack (down >$10 in 2 days). While the $VIX is no where near the mid 30s like we'd all love to see, the fact that the safe haven known as crude is breaking down is a very positive sign for the markets and it goes beyond the price of gas at the pump.

I'll try and briefly explain. It goes along the logic of me looking for energy stocks to break down last week. The energy sector stocks were basically the next domino to fall. The materials stocks (XLB) had been breaking down and the other recent hot sectors had been falling as well (solars, then Ag, then coal). The next biggest safe haven / momentum play / sector with relative strength, after those names was the oil and natural gas energy plays.

Now taking that a step further, the only investment over the last several months that has been even stronger than the oil and natural gas names themselves is crude oil. Now that crude is no longer a "when in doubt buy crude oil" play and money is finally flowing out of crude, it can now be put to work in actual stocks.

Think about it another way: if you can simply just throw your money in crude oil and be relatively comfortable that you will make $$, then why would you bother trying to invest anywhere else?

Here's AAPL & BRCM, which I added as swings today. You'll notice that they have fairly similar charts. Both have held up relatively well with the recent downturn in the markets and both of them have potential cup and handle patterns.

If AAPL can validate the C&H, and the market / earnings / etc cooperate, AAPL has a chance of hitting its cup and handle target of $265. The same goes for BRCM and $43.

Even if that doesn't pan out I think AAPL can hit / retest resistance at $200 for a nice short trade and BRCM can reach the low to mid 30s.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 11:23 PM 0 comments

Labels: AAPL, BRCM, CupnHandle, DUG, Trendline Break, Triangle

Here's AAPL which had been steadily trending up over the last few days. Today's entry provided a good short if the market weakness continued and stocks broke down. From what I've noticed recently, when AAPL falls, it usually falls in a hurry.

The market didn't end up breaking down, and AAPL ended up bouncing at the confluence of the top of yesterday's base & the 78.6% fib retracement from the recent low to high.



Here's a look at the AKS daily chart. It's been trading up in a channel over the last few weeks and bounced off of the lower trendline in the channel on Friday & Tuesday.



The AKS trade had a good result, but it was still poorly managed.



That was it for today's trades.

I wasn't filled on the Base & Break in CMP @ 74.00 (HCPG Watchlist). It basically ran right by my stop limit order. I pulled the order, as I didn't want to enter on what could have been a reversal.

I also lost focus a few times and failed to enter trades in RIMM (beautiful gap up & falling bullish wedge), CLF (gap up & bull flag), NUE (Cup & Handle type pattern at the top of Friday's high), & AMSC (A focus list stock with a base & break @ 33). Ouch.

I'm going to spend some time thinking of ways to force myself to stay in solid trades & better manage my screen space so I don't miss out on setups I've been stalking.

Posted by Trader M.D. at 1:05 PM 0 comments

Labels: AAPL, AKS, CupnHandle, Trendline Break