Thursday, April 17, 2008

JASO - Ja Solar Holdings - Base & Break

Lesson: Have more conviction with trades that setup and confirm with such strong volume. Have vision, anything can happen. Trail your stops and at least let part of the position run.

Re: The FSLR trade. It was nothing special (as it had little follow through and a lack of volume) and I figured it would be better to explain JASO in depth as opposed to hurry and post both trades.

FSLR could setup to run tomorrow. It will need more volume, but do keep it on your watch list.

POT - Potash - Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown

Just wanted to get a quick post up before I head out and take care of some errands. Late in the day I had a nice short side trade on Potash, which broke down out of a very cleanly formed symmetrical triangle.

I liked how the base of the triangle was just below the R2 pivot point. I entered short on a break down of the 182.50 level. I placed my stop just above 183.25.

My target on the trade was just below yesterday's high.

If you take the height of the symmetrical triangle (~2.35) and subtract it from the break down point (182.50), you get a target of about 180.15. POT came close to that point (it's low was 180.33). I was aware that yesterday's high was at 180.19 and the R1 pivot point level (180.59) could potentially act support and indeed it did.

I closed out the trade for a little over 2R as price started to bounce off the R1 level.

Later I'll post my trade of FSLR and JASO.

FSLR - Coiling up for a big move

The Short Squeeze & A few setups to keep an eye on

Recently, I've done pretty well trading other highly shorted names such as CROX, NTRI and VMW.

On Thursday, Briefing.com released its list of stocks with a high short interest at the end of March. I've taken that list and filtered out candidates:

  • trading under 300,000 shares on an average day (you need liquidity)
  • with less than 30% of the float short (you only want heavily shorted stocks - 30% is an arbitrary number, it could have been 40, 35, whatever you'd like)
  • and trading under $9.00 a share (I personally prefer not to trade stocks under $10 a share. The reason I used $9 in this case, is that there are stocks that maybe setting up just above the $10 level, but are currently trading below $10. Again, I could have used $8, $7.50, etc... but I don't want the majority of the short squeeze to be over and done with by the time it reaches a level I'd buy it at.)

I then added them to a watch list on my Stockcharts.com account, and visually filtered through the remaining 26 candidates for stocks I believe that could setup for a decent short squeeze rally.

In addition, by visually filtering through this list, it is possible to find ideas that may work towards the short side as well.

My main objective is finding stocks that can quickly move towards the upside after they cross certain levels where quite a few buy stop orders would be taken out. This can quickly bid up the price as those that are short a stock are essentially fighting with each other in order to cover their position and get out. That usually adds up to a quick, profitable trade.

Before I get to the charts, I want to point out that just because a stock has a high short interest, it doesn't mean it can't keep dropping. There are stocks can, do and will go to $0 (or close to it).

Let me also share a few other great resources (& free too!) regarding heavily shorted stocks (These all can be found under" Helpful Links" to the right):

Now the charts...

I'll be keeping an eye on the rest of that filtered list as well. If something presents itself as a high quality setup, I will post it on my blog. Just another reason to subscribe to my feed. :)

Weekend Reading

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